Crude oil shock rise to boost the change rate continues to rise

    Despite the recent international rating agencies cut EU sovereign debt rating, but the world's six largest banks coordinated roll down the European banks dollar financing cost measures, so that the European debt crisis can be phased alleviate; at the same time, the recent USA part of good economic data boosted consumer confidence, and the recent turmoil in the Middle East has also pushed up crude oil futures market confidence, recent international oil prices keep rising trend of shocks. Affected by this, since November 29th, three crude oil change rate bottomed rebound, recently has been kept the rising trend.

    Under the influence of many factors, the recent national development and Reform Commission is there a very small probability

    At present, the European debt crisis spreading may at any time, at the same time, the market worried about the global economic slowdown will lead to reduced demand for oil, but volatile situation in the Middle East will push up the crude oil futures market confidence, Zhuo and information analysis, the short term international oil prices will still continue to wide trend of shock. According to the display information data monitoring model of Zhuo, if the recent crude oil to maintain the trend of a slight concussion, the rate of change of the late three also will maintain the trend of shock, less likely to break the +4% this month, the NDRC raised to the recent open window theory.

    If the recent crude oil rose by the influence of accidental factors and to maintain this trend, this month three to change rate is expected to rise to +4%, at the appointed time, the NDRC theory raised window will open, given the current domestic inflation pressure is still grim, raise prices or will again delay. And, if after the accidental factors, international oil prices retaliatory fall, the latter three rate of change is bound to the rapid decline to below +4%, at the appointed time, raised the window will be closed, so that a smaller probability of NDRC raised prices in December.

    Diesel tensions continue, zero inversion phenomenon is serious

    Because of the current domestic diesel overall resource is still more nervous, most main diesel wholesale small shipments, resulting in the wholesale segment quantity is obviously insufficient, and the current traders inventory is low, the effect of the basic demand, social unit of diesel continuing high turnover, diesel oil market zero inversion phenomenon serious, and parts of the current main gas stop line, limited phenomenon from happening again. Although the market rise expected favorable market, but gasoline consumption in the off-season, traders inventory and slow digestion, is according to the pin into the market, turnover continued to light.

    Demand continued to fall, it is difficult to increase the supply of resources

    It is reported, at present the northern region continued to cool weather has caused mining, infrastructure operating rate decline, the heavy fog make high-speed closed most of the northern area, logistics and transport under certain pressure, while the northern minus diesel demand, but because the price is high, the terminal user is more on-demand set, diesel market rigid demand gradually decline. In addition, the weather turns cold, gasoline consumption is also entered the consumer off-season.

    On the one hand, due to the wholesale market of diesel delivery quantity scarce, resulting in prices far higher than the local social diesel maximum retail price, traders operating cost of larger, higher risk, the operation of the enthusiasm of the poor, at present is to digest inventory or cash, market speculation demand dropped significantly. On the other hand, because of the present gasoline demand in the off-season, compared to the previous, current stock traders digested more slowly, more is to press the pin into the main gasoline wholesale shipments, links are scarce, market speculation demand remains in the doldrums.

    Overall, December, the smaller possibility of NDRC raised prices, news in the face of market support Co.; diesel market supply and demand imbalance fundamentals will be a degree of ease, but expect the most main diesel wholesale still will be strictly controlled, and in the diesel rigid demand to fall back under the condition of gas station, the overall resources relatively loose can basically meet the needs of demand for vehicles. Gasoline market in the pile up in excess of requirement of the situation, with the new year's day, Spring Festival small long holiday is approaching, gasoline demand get seasonal support, traders may be an appropriate replenishment, then, the main gas shipments will improve.